RMB Revaluation: Not So Fast

January 7th, 2010

John Autheurs at the Financial Times does a brilliant job of putting into context just why he thinks the Chinese central authority will not be revaluing the RMB anytime soon. When the Chinese released their peg to the dollar in mid-2008 the Dollar, Korean Won and Brazilian Real all increased in value until, essentially, the start of the global economic downturn. Since then, the dollar has indeed devalued, but not so much that Chinese exporters have gained the same currency advantage they had when the dollar-peg had been released.

And, though Chinese manufacturing picked up ahead of American manufacturing in the fourth quarter of last year, American manufacturing has shown itself moving up the output curve to levels not seen since 2006. Factor in a stronger RMB relative to the Dollar of a year and a half ago, and its easy to see the Chinese have little incentive to remove the bit of advantage that keeps their exporters competitive.

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